Bangladesh has come a long way in terms of its exports. With an export of only $0.36 billion in fiscal 1973, the country has managed to increase it to $30.2 billion by the end of fiscal 2014. Comprising a share of 20 percent in the GDP, the importance of exports remains critical to the overall economic growth of the country.Firstly, let us take a quick look at some of the facts regarding exports of Bangladesh. The exports are largely dominated by readymade garments, whose share was 81.2 percent in FY2014. Around 96 percent of all exported goods are manufactured commodities. If we look at the table of top five manufactured goods, what we can perceive is that Bangladesh’s export basket is heavily concentrated on one product that is the readymade garments.With about four million workers and 81.2 percent of total export earnings, a lot of the country’s fate depends on a single sector. High export concentration on the garment sector can make the economy vulnerable to shocks.Shocks stemming from international financial crises, however, are likely to have minimal effects on Bangladeshi exports. This is because the share of Bangladeshi exports in world trade is extremely small. To put this in perspective, let us take a look at our largest export partner — the USA. Total import of goods and services into the USA was $2,766 billion in 2013 and the share of Bangladesh is only a meager 0.2 percent of total US imports. This depicts that Bangladesh has a vast world market for selling its products.However, possible threats that Bangladesh’s garment exports may face mostly stem from domestic inadequacies and rival countries.Currently, our garment industry has a comparative advantage in two areas namely high capacity and low wages. With 5,600 factories, Bangladesh’s apparel industry is ahead of countries like Indonesia (2,450 factories), Vietnam (2,000 factories) and Cambodia (260 factories) in terms of capacity.However, the other prime factor, low wage, may not be a sustainable comparative advantage for Bangladesh. The minimum wage in the industry has already increased by 77 percent to $66.25 since December 2013. Though it is lower than in countries like India, Pakistan, Indonesia and Vietnam, an increase in Bangladeshi wages will lead to a change in its comparative advantage. Not only can a wage hike in the domestic industry create a problem but countries emerging with lower wages may pose threats to our industry as well. For instance in the case of African nations such as Ethiopia, minimum wages can be as low as $23 a month. In addition, African countries receive a zero duty benefit for their exports to the US under the African Growth and Opportunity Act, whereas Bangladesh has to pay duty of 15.6 percent. African garment exports to the US were $0.9 billion in contrast to Bangladesh’s $5 billion in 2013. It should not come as a big surprise if African garment exports to the US gallop in the next few years.Nevertheless, the effects of rising wages can be negated with the help of higher productivity. But in terms of Standard Allowed Minutes (SAM), Bangladesh has a productivity score of 40 percent in contrast to its competitors Vietnam, India and Pakistan with a score of 80 percent in garment production.The question remains as to what can be done to increase Bangladesh’s exports, especially since a vast world market lingers out there.One way to do this is by diversification of products. Along with introducing new products to the export basket, the country can also focus on increasing exports from the existing industries that can prove to be lucrative.For instance, if we look at the exports of leather and footwear industry, we will see that they have been growing at an average annual rate of 31 percent and 25 percent respectively during the last five years. Scope exists for these industries to increase their exports further with the help of correct policies.One thing to realise is that the protection system that currently prevails in Bangladesh favours production for the domestic market rather than exporting. This creates an anti-export bias which makes domestically produced import competing goods more profitable to sell in the country rather than exporting. Garments on the other hand have been able to overcome this bias with the help of several measures such as back-to-back LC for import finance and bonded warehouse system for duty-free imported inputs.Another way to increase exports is through diversification of markets. In fiscal 2009, 93 percent of Bangladeshi garment exports went to the traditional markets, namely the USA, the EU and Canada. This has declined to 85 percent in fiscal 2014. The government gave cash incentives to the garment industry (5 percent, 4 percent and 2 percent for 2009-10, 2010-11 and 2011-12, respectively) for exporting to new destinations. This has increased exports and helped trigger the process of market diversification.We have seen that Bangladesh has a vast market for its exports and fluctuations in world demand due to international financial crises are likely to have minimal effect. However, such crises may affect export earnings in the short run. This is because Bangladesh is considered to be a price-taker in the international market and a fall in output price may result in some decline in export earnings, despite total quantity of garment exports being unaffected. Geographical diversification of exports can also help in this regard.
