It was observed in the September 15 Scopus article that Bangladesh was not among 57 countries in the 2014 Quality of Life Index (QOLI) list: India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka only made it from South Asia. In the same year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) found Bangladesh’s gross domestic product (GDP) to be the 35th largest among countries of the world. It had moved up from the 37th spot in the World Bank’s estimation of the weighted 2005-14 average, while the CIA Handbook found it retaining the same 35th position in the weighted average of a larger span, from 1993 to 2014. Overall, it has held its ground, and particularly impressive is that it does not depend upon a natural product, like petroleum, to dictate its economic fortunes. By following the traditional pathway of low-wage production, it has put into place the infrastructure of future growth?and climbing that ladder faster in the next 25 years than in the last 25. Still, the gap between 57th and 35th is too vast to ignore. This is the logical conclusion of putting the economic size of Bangladesh in perspective. During the last 25 years, it has competed (successfully) with Iraq for the 35th spot; and like Iraq, eight other countries with a higher ranking than Bangladesh’s, rely, to varying degrees, on oil exports to fuel their economies: Russia with the 6th largest economy, Indonesia with the 9th, Mexico with the 11th, Sa’udi Arabia with the 14th, Iran with the 18th, the United Arab Emirates with 32nd, Algeria with 33th, and Venezuela with the 34th. Among them, Sa’udi Arabia and the Emirates have cushioned themselves by vastly expanding their service sector, from banking, finance, and investment to wooing tourists (pilgrims for Sa’udi Arabia) and hosting international sports tournaments (Emirates). That leave two politically-torn countries Bangladesh should overtake soon: Algeria and Venezuela. With a 2014 GDP of about US$ 599.8 billion, the Emirates is not that far removed from Bangladesh’s 2014 GDP of U.S. $533.7 billion. Central to Bangladesh’s likely ascent have been (a) the ongoing oil-price collapse, which is not only hurting the above-mentioned oil-exporting countries, but is also easing as a Bangladesh import constraint; (b) the continued surge in ready-made garments (RMGs) demand, permitting Bangladesh to weather its own 2013-2014 political crisis; (c) Bangladesh’s heavy infrastructural investments underway, from highways and ports to alternative energy sources, such as solar; (d) the relatively more transparent Bangladesh economy, but also how it is aligning with China, the United States, India, and Japan, the world’s first, second, third, and fourth largest economies today; (e) Bangladesh’s relatively stable economic growth-rate, averaging above 4.5 per cent annually during the past 25 years, which none of the other oil-exporting countries can claim; and (f) Bangladesh’s huge population of 161 million not only creating a robust domestic market that few oil-exporting countries can match, but whose population growth-rate has also stabilied around the ideal replacement level (around 2). Added to these are unfolding plurilateral economic agreements. One with Malaysia (ranked 28th in economic size with a 2014 GDP of U.S. $746.1 billion) this week can only be mutually beneficial, while exploring opportunities in our neighbourhood with Indonesia ((U.S. $2,676.1 billion), Thailand (ranked 22nd with U.S. $985.5 billion), and the Philippines (ranked 30th with U.S. $ 692.2 billion) would not only open non-RMG frontiers, but also extract more from our manpower resources. Unlike oil, any RMG industry mobilises a far larger workforce and must compete in the global market to survive rather than arbitrarily set oligopolistic export-prices, as with oil. The result is a multi-dimensional brand-name for the country abroad rather than a single-brand identification, like a banana republic. Both above factors (deteriorating oil-prices and diversifying brand-name) should easily push Bangladesh into the 20-something ranking for economic size. Beyond that, on the positive side of the ledger, it will have to play on the mutual rivalries between China, India, Japan, and the United States to squeeze as much in terms of appropriate infrastructural and industrial investments, through ports, bridges, metropolitan high-speed rails, and export processing zones. These it must do, as, indeed, it currently is doing, without taking sides since all four of these economic giants have upgraded the South/Southeast Asia corners of the world for their own future economic betterment. Over the past 25 years, Bangladesh’s 4.83 per cent annualised economic growth-rate was surpassed by 146 countries (some as tiny as Aruba, Fiji, Macao, Malta, Palau, Samoa, Timor-Leste, and Tuvalu, for example), while its 2.76 per cent GDP/capita annualised growth-rate was ranked 166th out of 210 countries. In conjunction with both natural threats (climate-change, flooding, and so forth) and man-made (hartals, oborodhs, and the like), Bangladesh must also upgrade its social and political infrastructure to supplement its economic transformation: literacy, women in the workplace as well as in the education marketplace and professional fields, universally recognised democratic claims, and sustainability remain areas demanding increasing attention. These are the missing blanks capable of shaking the economy as dramatically as any sudden oil-embargo or oil-glut. These are what literally prevent us from joining the top-20 largest economies. We can have the cash, but do we have the needed spunk? Nonetheless, predictions of Bangladesh’s nominal GDP expanding from US$ 205.3 billion in 2015 and US$ 321.9 in 2020 (our 50th birthday) suggest crossing the trillion-threshold in 2045 (US$ 1.18 trillion), then almost doubling to almost US$ 2.2 trillion in 2060. Only 27 other countries will have a larger economic size than ours. Just in the neighbourhood, we will have overtaken Pakistan (US$ 1.78 trillion in 2060), but Vietnam will have overtaken us as well (U.S. $2.43 trillion). Our population would break the 200-million mark, and how much higher can our growth-rate take us will depend upon how conscientiously we groom our children now. Compared to our brutal beginning in the 1970s, our reason to smile now should not conceal our greater future obligations.
