The International Cotton Advisory Council (ICAC) expects world cotton trade to be stable in the 2015/16 season to be stable. In its latest report, ICAC forecasts world cotton imports to also remain unchanged at 7.6 million tons in 2015/16. While China is likely to remain the world’s largest importer in 2015/16, its imports are forecast to fall by 12 per cent to 1.6 million tons; which represents just 30 per cent of its peak volume of imports in 2011/12. In 2015, the Chinese government restricted imports to the minimum volume required by the World Trade Organization (WTO) to encourage mills to purchase domestic cotton. In July and August 2015, it sold nearly 60,000 tons from its reserve, but still holds 11 million tons and given the large volume of production and reserves, ICAC projects imports to be restricted again in 2016. Meanwhile, ICAC added that imports by other countries are expected to grow 4 per cent to 5.8 million tons, with imports from Bangladesh, Vietnam, and Indonesia projected to grow in 2015/16. Bangladesh imports are forecast to increase 1 per cent to 972,000 tons while Vietnam’s imports are forecast up 2 per cent to 956,000 tons. After decreasing in 2013/14, Indonesia’s imports recovered 13 per cent to 735,000 tons in 2014/15, and are expected to again increase 6 per cent to 782,000 tons in 2015/16. The United States is expected to lead in export volume, although its exports are projected down 9 per cent to 2.2 million tons due to a smaller volume of production in the current season. “After declining 48 per cent in 2014/15, India’s exports may recover 34 per cent to 1.2 million tons, with exports in the next three largest exporting countries likely to dip due to reductions in their exportable surplus,” it informed. Brazil’s exports are projected down 10 per cent to 766,000 tons, Uzbekistan’s will be down 5 per cent to 565,000 tons and Australia’s will also be down 10 per cent to 467,000 tons. World cotton area is projected to fall 7 per cent to 31.1 million hectares in this season due to significantly lower cotton prices in 2014/15. As a result, ICAC predicted that world cotton production is expected to fall by 9 per cent to 23.8 million tons. India’s cotton area is estimated to fall 5 per cent to 11.6 million hectares, and production to drive down 2 per cent to 6.4 million tons. China’s cotton production is again set to drop 16 per cent to 5.4 million tons due to a 12 per cent reduction in area and a 5 per cent decrease in the average yield as a result of unfavourable weather. “After a 24 per cent expansion in 2014/15, cotton area in the United States will contract 13 per cent to 3.3 million hectares with production declining 11 per cent to 3.2 million tons in 2015/16,” the agency stated.
