Cotton production in two major countries—China and the US—will decrease by 19 percent and 18 percent in 2015-16 due to a fall in cultivation fuelled by less demand and higher cotton stock worldwide, according to a new report.In 2016, cotton production in China is estimated to be around 5.3 million tonnes, down 19 percent from 2014-15 and 35 percent from a record 8.1 million tonnes in 2007-08, the International Cotton Advisory Committee or ICAC said in a statement.The ICAC provides statistics on world cotton production, consumption, trade and stocks and identifies emerging changes in the world cotton market.Similarly, 13 percent reduction in harvested areas in the US coupled with lower yields due in part to excessive rains in autumn are expected to lead to a fall in production of 18 percent to 2.9 million tonnes, the Washington-based committee said.Despite the production fall and higher stock in major countries, cotton consumption will rise by 10 percent to more than 1 million tonnes in Bangladesh this year.The ICAC attributed the rise in consumption to the higher demand from garment makers and favourable government policies for the textile sector.It also said cotton consumption in Vietnam, one of the major competitors of Bangladesh in global apparel trade, will rise by 20 percent to 1.1 million tonnes in 2015-16.With higher demand, Bangladesh may overtake China as the world’s biggest cotton importer in the current crop season thanks to strong demand from apparel makers, according to data from the US Department of Agriculture.In the year ending July 31, Bangladesh may import a record 5.75 million bales of the fibre, up 6.5 percent from a year earlier, said the USDA. One bale weighs 480 pounds, or 218 kilograms.Despite low international cotton prices, growers in Australia and some South American countries may expand planted areas by 1 percent to 2.9 million hectares.In 2015-16, production in the southern hemisphere is projected to go down 2 percent to 2.5 million tonnes while it is estimated to be 20.6 million tonnes for the northern hemisphere. India’s production of around 6.2 million tonnes accounts for around 30 percent of production in the northern hemisphere. Cotton use in mills in the world will likely remain unchanged in 2016 from 2014-15 at 24.3 million tonnes, according to the statement.International cotton prices have remained similar to those registered last season, while polyester prices have continued to fall.After decreasing steadily since 2010-11, cotton use in mills in China was stable at 7.5 million tonnes in 2014-15, but is projected to decline by 3 percent to 7.3 million tonnes in 2015-16.India’s mill use is forecast to increase year-on-year by 3 percent to 5.5 million tonnes while Pakistan’s may decrease by 12 percent to 2.2 million tonnes. World stocks at the end of 2015-16 are forecast to be 20.6 million tonnes, 58 percent of which will be in China.World imports are projected to decline in 2015-16 by 4 percent to 7.3 million tonnes.Imports outside China are forecast to increase 6 percent to 6.1 million tonnes. This rise will not offset the decline in China’s imports, which are expected to decrease 34 percent to 1.2 million tonnes.
