Nowhere else in our economy has there been a more dramatic reversal than with the two most prominent fibres in Bangladesh’s history: jute and cotton. Whereas the former completely lost its “golden” touch as an economic catalyser and export-income source, the latter emerged from out of virtually nowhere to become one of the country’s vital imports; and since cotton imports fed not just the spiralling consumption of an upwardly-moving transitional society but also a clothing industry trying to become the world’s leader, they, rather than home-grown jute, take the honours of shifting our economy from agriculture to manufacture. In short, the evaporation of one (jute) served as some kind of a necessary condition for the growth of the other (cotton): they might cancel each other out in a trade ledger, but the residual impact finds Bangladesh knocking on the doors of a frontier market today, with cotton than it could with jute. Whichever form of jute was produced, export was the overwhelming objective before independence. Taking 1970 as an example, Khondakar Golam Moazzem, Md. Tarique Rahman, and Abdus Sobhan’s Centre for Policy Dialogue report informs us 87 per cent of the 155,586 metric tons (MT) of hessian produced went abroad, as too 78 per cent of the 267,614 MT of sacking, and 96.7 per cent of the 23,979 MTs of carpet-backing. For two subsequent decades, though the industry was either fully nationalised (until 1982) or partially (1982-91), two broader features betrayed underlying changes: the introduction of yarn/twine (spinning) in the production process at the recommendation of the World Bank, which turned out to be an unannounced cornerstone for the ready-made garment (RMG) industry; and the increasing proportion of total export of hessian, sacking, and carpet-backing jute before full-fledged denationalisation in 1991 (for example, exported hessian increased to 99.5 per cent of production, sacking to 71.7 per cent, and carpet-backing to 89.7 per cent). Yarn/twine entered the picture at an abnormally high level: 90.8 per cent of production. Fast-forwarding to the 21st Century, using, for example, the Great Recession (2007-10) as the cut-off point, the country’s share of the global jute market collapsed from its previous monopolistic holdings of 80 per cent to under 20 per cent. Part of the reason why was the expanded domestic consumption (at the proportional rate of one-third more each year), and part from synthetic substitutes that the World Bank had forewarned us of in the early 1980s, but aggressively pushed in its 1993 Jute Restructuring Programme so we could divert scarce resources elsewhere. One consequence was that, of the 129 mills existing in 2007, 111 were privatised (61 with membership in the Bangladesh Jute Mills Association and 50 in the Bangladesh Jute Spinners Association), about 40 per cent in the yarn/twine business and about 30 per cent in hessian and sacking. Only 18 mills remained in the public sector, as contrasted to 72 in 1982 (34 of which began the denationalisation process between 1982 and 1985). Jute had come full circle: after it was first exported to Dundee in the 1790s, on the one hand, the Bajajs, Birlas, Mittals, and Tatas within the British Empire context, then, on the other, Adamjees, Bawanis, Ispahanis, Khans, and Mawiyas within the Pakistan context, dominated the trade; but by the time Bangalees became owners of their own jute, greener pastures began shifting to other industries. Though polypropylene and other substitutes inflicted irrevocable damage to the jute industry in the 1990s, the accumulating environment-friendly approach to industries in the 21st Century is proving to be a blessing in disguise by replacing substitutes with natural fibres (jute is carbon-neutral, offers ultra-violet protection, and provides sound/heat insulation): we might see a jute renaissance for eco-friendly reasons, without expecting another monopolistic streak. As of 2013, there were 187 jute factories operating, Bangladesh was supplying 80 per cent of the 450,000-MT global demand, but that two-thirds of the exports are now spinners (of yarn/twine). In that year, $140 million worth of raw jute was exported, but $611 million was earned from yarn/twine and jute products. Since new products can now be squeezed out of the fibre (paper, for example), any jute renaissance might also be multi-faceted, in addition to being renewable. Any revitalisation will be RMG-related: with its golden age fitting a traditional society, a silver accolade behind the RMG magic in an industrialising society is appropriate. Cotton boasts a more durable RMG alignment, but exposes deficiencies in the economy. A Cotton Development Board (CDB), established in 1972, became functional two years later, and headquartered the Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute (BARI) from 1991 to experiment with hybrids. Until then American Upland Cotton and Hill Cotton were imported, cultivated, and produced to substitute pre-independence West Pakistani Cotton (and clothing), but faced a negative production growth-rate throughout the 1970s. Given the BGMEA (Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association) target to have $50 billion export sales by our 50th independence anniversary (the year 2021), cotton is likely to be increasingly prioritised for both production and processing. Although less than 40,000 hectares (1 hectare=2.47 acres) of land have been ploughed for cultivation, the 129,000 bales (roughly about 480 pounds each) currently produced is a record for us, as Dr. Md. Gazi Golam Mostafa’s 2015 study noted. In addition, “Vision 2021” of the Cotton Development Board (CDB) envisages a Taka 1.05-billion (105-crore) project to expand cultivation to 700,000 bales by 2018 by extending cultivation to 100,000 hectares (each equivalent of about 2.5 acres). Almost one-third of our huge factory demands could be met. As an August 20, 2014 Daily Star report observed, over $4.5 billion is being spent to import cotton, increasingly from India (the world’s second-largest producer, accounting for one-fifth of global output), but also China (the world’s largest producer, supplying 25 per cent of global production), the United States (third largest producer with 15 per cent of global output), Pakistan (the fourth largest, with 10 per cent of the world’s supply), and others (like Uzbekistan). This is not surprising since the cotton growth-rate production has plummeted alarmingly since 2011 (it was 25.55 per cent in 2012, but 6.48 per cent the next year and 4.17 per cent in 2015). With 4.5 million bales, we are now the second largest importer, as A.Z.M. Anas noted in a Policy Research Institute “Global cotton” summit in March 2015, behind China’s 7.3 million bales. As India speeds to become our largest supplier, we expect not only more bilateral agreements to smoothen flows, but also pave the way for even broader transaction deals. On our 45th anniversary in 2016, then, the country’s resuscitated “golden” fibre is angled to feed the domestic apparel industries, primarily to make our foreign-exchange earnings more efficient, secondarily to supply domestic clothing markets. Heralding the advent of new production lines, the once non-existing cotton industry is also being built to facilitate apparel exports. Both are part and parcel of the country’s $50-billion RMG export target: jute alone spoke for the state of the country’s economy until the 1980s; admitting cotton into our economic ledger speaks of the adaptability and diversification possible for the country only after independence, and only because of independence. In the final analysis, the combination of both are pivotal to Bangladesh becoming a developed country (DC), as is being increasingly discussed and targeted by industrial and governmental leaders. Crossing that threshold demands we deepen and diversify our industries to suit the DC model. We expect both fibres to hit their peak production any time in the next 4-5 years before yielding to sister industries. The fate of two industries that will not beacon that industrial deepening phase is assessed in the next article: tea and sugar.
