Bangladesh is expected to join the big league of developing nations and make the transition from current LDC status by 2024.
However, as per an analysis carried out by the Government, even as the country makes the much-awaited transition, the consequent loss of exports would result in creation of new poor.
According to media reports, as per the ‘Impact Assessment and Coping up Strategies of Graduation from LDC Status for Bangladesh’ of the General Economics Division (GED) of the Planning Ministry, consequent to the decline in exports, the number of poor is likely to increase from 24.09 million to 24.16 million.
As per some estimates, Bangladesh is likely to lose around US $ 7.0 billion worth of export earnings annually, including from apparels, after graduation to a developing nation status in 2024.
Meanwhile, as per the assessment, 86,568 new people may turn poor under the medium export shock scenario, implying a head count poverty rate of 13.18 per cent even as the poverty rate may jump to 13.24 per cent under the high export shock scenario as the number of new poor will be 125,168, it underlined while adding that with more than 8.5 per cent economic growth, the head count rate of poverty is projected to drop to 13.1 per cent in 2027 under the business-as-usual scenario.
Nevertheless, economic contraction due to graduation may cause the poverty level to rise, the report said even as commenting on the GED observations, the Executive Director of the Policy Research Institute of Bangladesh, Ahsan H. Mansur, reportedly, underlined that the real impacts of graduation could be understood after 2024 and went on to add that if Bangladesh can obtain the GSP Plus status in the European Union — there is a possibility of gaining the status as Bangladesh is a major exporter to the bloc, Ahsan H. Mansur said — the poverty rate might not increase as higher exports will generate jobs.
