The government hopes that the country’s current account deficit will go within the next two years after being negative for most of the past decade.
In the medium term, the balance of payments (BOP) will improve further, and the current account balance would return to a positive quadrant by the end of FY26, said the medium-term macroeconomic policy statement (MTMPS) released on June 1.
The current account tracks a country’s international transactions in goods, services, income and transfers.
The current account affects the balance of payments, which records all economic transactions with the rest of the world.
Together, they provide insights into a country’s economic relationship with other nations.
By FY26, the MTMPS mentioned that export earnings may reach $78 billion and imports may stand at $101 billion.
The gross foreign exchange reserves may then reach $ 48 billion from the present amount of less than $30 billion, it added.
Bangladesh Bank data shows that during the July-April period of the current fiscal year, the current account deficit was $3.772 billion, while the gap was $15.486 billion in the same period of the last fiscal year.
In the entire fiscal year 2021-22, the deficit was $18.697 billion.
The MTMPS noted it has been more than a year since the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out and still there is no sign that the conflict will subside soon.
The fighting in Ukraine is expected to intensify during the next few months, and if it turns out to be a larger conflict involving other countries, the world economy will most likely enter an unprecedented perilous phase, it said.
Bangladesh is already tackling pressure emanating from the BOP situation. The measures that are being undertaken to improve the situation will be (the) key and hence will need to be implemented carefully, noted the MTMPS.
If the current negative growth of imports continues and export growth remains stable, the BOP problem will eventually fade away.
To expedite the recovery phase, inward remittance and disbursement of foreign loans against projects and budget support will also need to be facilitated, it said.
