Commerce Ministry organized a meeting on July 12 to set the export target for the current financial year. At the end of the discussion, the export target for goods has been set at $62 billion. The growth is estimated at 11.59 percent. The main export sector, apparel exports, is targeted at $52 billion. The estimated growth in apparel exports is 10.87 percent.
However, the Commerce Minister Tipu Munshi himself admitted that such a target is ambitious in the current situation. But he hopes that this target can be achieved if the supply of gas and electricity is guaranteed.
Highlighting the statistics of the previous fiscal year, the minister said that in the fiscal year 2022-23, the product sector has earned $55.56 billion against the target of $58 billion. The amount of which is about 95.8 percent of the target. The targets set for the current financial year are achievable and traders agreed with our statement. Leaders of various business organizations have demanded to ensure gas-electricity-fuel and other facilities to achieve export targets.
Figure: In the fiscal year 2022-23, the product sector earned $55.56 billion against the target of $58 billion.
He also said that by the end of 2023, various organizations have predicted that there will be positive growth in most of the economies of South Asia. If this forecast is correct, the GDP growth in Bangladesh will be 6.8 percent. As a result, the world economy will return to the trend of growth in the coming year.
However, expecting to return to a positive trend, the exporters are worried as the export growth in the major garment markets is in a negative trend. The US and Germany, the largest two markets for apparel, are still showing negative growth, 5.51 percent and 6.81 percent respectively in the last financial year. In spite of this situation, the concerned entrepreneurs and exporters do not think the target of achieving double digit growth in garment exports at the end of the current fiscal year is realistic.
Bangladesh has to deal with existing challenges – both international and local – which are reflected in the monetary value of apparel production. After overcoming the impact of the Covid-19 epidemic, Bangladesh’s garment exports were gradually increasing. Since Russia and Ukraine are involved in the war, it has an impact on the whole world. As a result, all countries had to deal with inflationary conditions throughout the last year.
At present, the picture of inflation in major markets has started to change, but there is no sign of any change in the buying habits of consumers and the purchasing orders of buyers. As a reflection of this situation, the figure of downward production growth of clothing has emerged in the government statistics. Exports to non-traditional markets are increasing. But the contribution of these markets to total exports is not significant.
A comparative analysis of recent statistics of Bangladesh Bank and Chittagong Port Authority shows that exports of goods have increased in monetary value but decreased in volume. Almost all of the major exporters say that their exports have declined in the last financial year.
Not only Bangladesh, but the whole world does not see such a situation that there will be growth. Rather, the exports of our competing countries are also decreasing. For example, Bangladesh is still in a relatively good position compared to other competitors, with a high percentage of those countries’ exports declining.
Internal crises include power, energy, banking and National Board of Revenue issues. Despite the increase in the price of gas and electricity, there is concern about uninterrupted supply. Besides, labor wages will also increase by the end of this year. Along with these there are issues like customs, bond and VAT. Moreover, many big garment factories of the country are not able to use the full production capacity. Overall, the production growth at the beginning of this year has declined and turned negative in March.
The entrepreneurs of this sector are very worried about the current situation. As such situation, the chances of double digit growth in the new financial year are very low.
However, according to the commerce ministry, there was no diversification in the export of goods to new export markets and global inflation may come down from November. On this basis they have set the targets.
‘Human lives in hope’ and since last year good results came despite global adversity, we can hope this time too. Although international problems are not in our hands, we can solve our internal problems such as electricity, energy, banking and National Board of Revenue issues. Then we may have such growth opportunities.
